St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 8/21/2025
The St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays will open a three-game interleague series in Tampa on Thursday night. Both teams are just below the .500 mark for the season and will look to get a much-needed win in this series opener. Before first pitch from Florida, continue reading to get my Cardinals vs Rays prediction for tonight.
Our Cardinals vs Rays Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Claim our Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet $1 and get 20 100% profit boosts for your next 20 bets! Click the Claim Bonus button below to start.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 21, 2025, 7:35 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray (11-6, 4.30 ERA) vs Joe Boyle (1-2, 4.68 ERA)
- Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: FDSSUN and FDSMW
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Sonny Gray brings an 11-6 record and 4.30 ERA into this start. But he has allowed seven home runs per nine innings and he has a 5.23 ERA over his last six starts. Joe Boyle’s 4.68 season ERA does not reflect his sharp work of late. He has a 0.60 ERA across 15 home innings but his small sample size limits how predictive that number is.
Key Players
Willson Contreras leads the Cardinals with 17 home runs and 67 RBI. Alec Burleson has a .284 average and will look to set the table for the team’s power bats. Junior Caminero stands out for the Rays with 35 home runs and 85 RBI.
Recent team streaks
The Rays have dropped their last three games and are 61-66 on the season. St. Louis has won two of their last three games and they enter this interleague matchup at 63-65 for the year.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Sonny Gray | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Joe Boyle | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first matchup between these teams this season.
- Tampa has gone under the total in 55.7% of their games this season.
- The Cardinals have gone over the total in 52.9% of their games in 2025.
- The Cardinals are 28-35 in road games this year.
- The Rays are 32-32 at home on the season.
Cardinals vs Rays Model Projection
Score Projection: Rays 4 – Cardinals 3
Win Probability: Cardinals 49%, Rays 51%
Final Thoughts
This game could go either way as far as I’m concerned. But no matter which way it goes, I think we are in for a low-scoring matchup from Tampa. The Rays and Cardinals both have solid starting pitchers on the mound and we should see both of them perform well tonight. I’ll take the under and hope that the power bats on each side don’t have huge games.
