St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 8/1/2025
The San Diego Padres will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park on Friday night. The Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball coming into this game. They will look to stay that way against the Cardinals in a key National League matchup. Before the Cardinals and Padres go at it in San Diego, continue reading to get my Cardinals vs Padres prediction for tonight.
Our Cardinals vs Padres Prediction
- Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres |
| Date & Time | August 1, 2025, 9:40 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs. Nick Pivetta (SD) |
| Stadium | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Broadcast | MLB.tv |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Form: Nick Pivetta is 10-3 and has a 2.81 ERA for the Padres this season. He has been especially dominant at home. He has a 6-0 record and a 2.07 ERA in 11 home starts. Matthew Liberatore is 6-8 and has a 4.04 ERA in 2025. He has struggled on the road with a 2-4 record and a 3.65 ERA in nine road starts.
Bullpen Usage: The Padres bolstered their bullpen by acquiring closer Mason Miller from the Athletics. That should further boost their late-game reliability on the bump. The Cardinals traded away key reliever Ryan Helsley. The Padres already had the advantage in the bullpen before the deadline and we should see that gap grow here.
Team Momentum: The Padres are on a five-game winning streak and recently swept the New York Mets. The Cardinals have lost two games in a row and have dropped four of their last five contests.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Nick Pivetta | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- The regular season series between these teams is tied 2-2.
- The over/under has been split 2-2 through the first four games between these teams.
- The Cardinals have been shut out in each of their last two games.
- San Diego has given up two or fewer runs in four of their last five games.
Cardinals vs Padres Model Projection
Projected Score: Padres 5 – Cardinals 3
Win Probability: Padres 65% | Cardinals 35%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this game is for the Padres to cover the runline at home. Nick Pivetta gives the Padres a huge starting pitching advantage going into this contest. And with the Padres bullpen trending in the right direction and the Cardinals getting worse in the pen, I don’t think the Cardinals will make up for any starting pitching disadvantages here. I’ll take San Diego to win this game by two runs or more.
