St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 7/2/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t exactly known for playing winning baseball in recent years. But that is exactly what they have been doing lately, as they enter Wednesday’s matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals on a five-game winning streak. The Cardinals are favored in this game, but momentum is firmly on the Bucs’ side. Can Pittsburgh extend their five-game winning streak, or will the Cardinals get back into the win column? Find out in my Cardinals vs Pirates prediction for Wednesday afternoon.

Our Cardinals vs Pirates Pick

• Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-140)
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025 at 12:35 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray (STL, 8-2, 3.36 ERA) vs Mitch Keller (PIT, 2-10, 3.90 ERA)
• Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
• Broadcast: MLB Network

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Sonny Gray: Dominant with an 8‑2 record and 3.36 ERA. In June’s latest outing he shut down Cleveland over nine innings, walking none and fanning 11. Gray is showcasing peak control at 1.09 WHIP this season. Gray is 3-1 on the road this season.
• Mitch Keller: Slumping at 2‑10 with a 3.90 ERA. His last start saw him throw 5.1 innings and give up just one earned run to the Mets. His ability to limit damage mid-game has been a positive even if the Pirates haven’t given him much help.

Bullpen Usage

The Pirates are stretched thin in relief, but closer David Bednar remains reliable in limited save chances. The Cardinals’ bullpen is stable, though Tuesday’s shutout loss didn’t give their pen any run support. The game script will dictate usage, but Gray’s projected 6‑7 innings gives St. Louis a bullpen advantage.

Recent Team Streaks

• Pittsburgh is surging, claiming five straight wins, including back-to-back wins over the Cardinals.
• St. Louis has struggled in this series, losing two in a row to the worst team in the NL Central.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Last 5 games: Pirates are 5‑0 SU. Cardinals are 0‑2 in this series and 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• Day games: Cardinals are 22‑21 overall in daytime. Pirates are 17‑22 during the day.
• Versus LHP/RHP: Gray neutralizes right-handed bats well, while Keller gives up more to lefties.

Cardinals vs Pirates Model Projection

Score Projection: St. Louis Cardinals 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4

Win Probability: Cardinals 55%, Pirates 45%

Final Thoughts

My MLB betting model favors St. Louis based on superior starting pitching. Gray’s dominance, the Cardinals’ road record as favorites, and Pittsburgh’s thin bullpen tilt the edge to St. Louis. The total of 8 looks fair, but individual prop options offer solid value. I recommend backing the Cardinals moneyline at -140, expecting a one-run victory in a close contest.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.