St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 7/1/2025

Get ready for a National League Central clash as the St. Louis Cardinals travel to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh will deploy their ace rookie Paul Skenes (4–7, 2.12 ERA), who’s carving up lineups with a mix of velocity and swing-and-miss stuff. The Cardinals counter with Andre Pallante (5–4, 4.43 ERA), who has shown flashes of effectiveness but remains inconsistent. Here, I make my Cardinals vs Pirates prediction to see if Skenes will get a rare win this season.

Our Cardinals vs Pirates Pick

Pick: Pirates moneyline (-168)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 2025 – 6:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: PIT – Paul Skenes (4–7, 2.12 ERA) • STL – Andre Pallante (5–4, 4.43 ERA)
• Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
• Broadcast: SportsNet PT & FDSMW

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Paul Skenes has a sterling 2.12 ERA across 17 starts with 12 quality outings. He averages over 6 innings per outing and is a dominant presence on the mound. But the team around him has not helped him to get wins.
• Andre Pallante has been more inconsistent, with a 4.43 ERA in 16 starts. He gives up too much contact and sits around 5 innings per start, which could expose the Cards late in the game.

Bullpen usage

• Pirates have leaned on their relievers, but with Skenes turning in average six-inning outings, Pittsburgh’s pen stays relatively fresh.
• Cardinals will likely rely on Ryan Helsley to close out, and he’s locked in after recording his 100th career save on June 28.

Recent team streaks

• The Pirates are riding a four-game win streak.
• The Cardinals have dropped two in a row on the road versus Pittsburgh.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Pirates have hit the under in 6 of their last 8 home games vs St. Louis.
• The Cardinals are only 1–4 on the road vs PIT in their last 5.

Pirates vs Cardinals Model Projection

Score Projection: Pirates 5 – Cardinals 4

Win Probability: Pirates 62%, Cardinals 38%

Final Thoughts

This is an ideal setup for the Pirates. Skenes has elite strikeout stuff, Pittsburgh’s offense is clicking, and they’re in a comfortable groove at home. The Cardinals will try to hang around to get to Helsley in the back end, but Pallante’s early exit could leave them short. My best bet is to back the Pirates on the moneyline, as they should be able to hold on in a tight, low-scoring affair.

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.