St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/30/2025

As the St. Louis Cardinals head to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 30, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Cardinals currently hold a record of 47-38, showcasing a solid campaign, while the Pirates sit at 35-50, struggling through a rough season. This National League Central matchup is crucial for the Cardinals as they look to continue their push for a higher seed.

In their last outing, the Cardinals took care of business and secured a victory, keeping their momentum intact. They are projected to start Erick Fedde, a right-handed pitcher who has had a challenging year, but his 4.11 ERA and decent innings projection of 5.4 innings could play to his advantage against a Pirates offense ranked 29th in the league. Fedde's tendency to keep the ball in play paired with the Pirates’ struggles to secure hits could turn this game in favor of St. Louis.

On the other side of the mound, the Pirates will send Andrew Heaney, a left-handed pitcher with an average 4.48 ERA. Heaney’s season has been marked by inconsistency, and he projects to allow 5.5 hits and 2.8 earned runs per game. With both teams featuring pitchers whose underlying numbers suggest a likelihood of underperformance, this matchup may hinge on offensive production.

The projections indicate that the Cardinals should take advantage of their offensive prowess, ranking 15th overall in MLB, compared to the Pirates' dismal 29th ranking. The game total sits at a modest 8.5 runs, suggesting the potential for a competitive but low-scoring affair. Current betting lines favor the Cardinals as they look to capitalize on a struggling Pirates team.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, hitters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Andrew Heaney.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney has relied on his slider 12.2% less often this season (15.7%) than he did last season (27.9%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Joey Bart is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Pittsburgh Pirates batters as a group rank among the worst in the majors this year ( 7th-worst) when it comes to their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 32 away games (+15.65 Units / 37% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 90% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.94

• Date: June 30, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.