St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 4/8/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On April 8, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park for the second game of their series. The Pirates currently sit at 4-7, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 4-6, with both teams struggling to find their footing early in the season. Notably, the Cardinals have a strong offensive presence, ranking 3rd overall in MLB, bolstered by their top-ranked batting average.

In their previous matchup, the Pirates got the better of the Cardinals. Paul Skenes, projected to start for Pittsburgh, is off to an impressive start this year, with a 1.46 ERA and ranking as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His ability to generate ground balls (62% GB rate) will be crucial against a Cardinals team that has shown power with 16 home runs so far this season, ranking 5th in the league.

Sonny Gray, starting for St. Louis, has had mixed results with a 5.73 ERA but is projected to improve given his 3.33 xFIP, indicating he may have been unlucky. Gray's high strikeout rate (33.3% K%) could pose problems for the Pirates, who rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts.

With the game total set at a low 6.5 runs, bettors should note that both teams’ implied totals are also quite low. The projections suggest a close contest, and while the Pirates are favored at -135, their offense will need to rise to the occasion if they hope to back their ace pitcher today.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Among all starting pitchers, Sonny Gray's fastball spin rate of 2515.4 rpm ranks in the 95th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Victor Scott generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 7% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals ranks them as the #27 team in the game since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to league average, Paul Skenes has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an additional 4.4 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.8% rate (87th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Paul Skenes has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 86% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.