St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 4/7/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

In this National League Central matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 7, 2025. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates sitting at 3-7 and the Cardinals at 4-5. In their last game, the Pirates rallied for a 5-4 victory, while the Cardinals suffered a staggering 18-7 defeat.

Pittsburgh will send Carmen Mlodzinski to the mound, whose struggles have been evident this season with an ERA of 9.82 over just one start. However, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP is significantly lower at 3.25. Mlodzinski's high groundball rate (62%) could serve him well against the powerful Cardinals lineup, which has hit 14 home runs this season—ranking 5th in MLB.

On the other side, St. Louis will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has also had his challenges. While his ERA is a more respectable 4.50, he’s projected to have a solid outing today, anticipating to pitch about 5.0 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs. Liberatore's low walk rate (0.0 BB%) could be crucial against a Pirates offense that struggles to make contact, sitting 2nd in MLB for strikeouts.

The Pirates excel in stolen bases, but their overall struggles could cost them against a strong Cardinals lineup currently ranked 3rd in offensive performance. Betting markets reflect a close game, with Pittsburgh's moneyline set at +105. As the Pirates look to build momentum after their recent win, they may find solace in Mlodzinski's potential for improvement amid the Cardinals' own pitching uncertainties.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Compared to league average, Matthew Liberatore has been granted a below-average leash since the start of last season, recording an -25.8 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Brendan Donovan has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.2-mph average to last season's 88.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

St. Louis Cardinals bats as a group rank 27th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when judging by their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Carmen Mlodzinski has been lucky since the start of last season, notching a 3.81 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.79 — a 0.98 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Oneil Cruz has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 21.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 29.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games at home (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.55 Units / 49% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates

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