St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the St. Louis Cardinals in the second game of their series at Citizens Bank Park. Currently, the Phillies hold a record of 24-17, while the Cardinals are slightly behind at 23-19. Despite their close records, the Phillies are enjoying a great season, bolstered by a strong offense that ranks as the 9th best in MLB. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been performing above average but rank lower offensively, sitting at 8th overall.

In their last game, the Phillies lost to the Cardinals, and Philly will look to rebound today. Jesus Luzardo, projected to start for Philadelphia, has been a standout pitcher this season, boasting a 3-0 record and an exceptional ERA of 2.11. Although his xFIP suggests he might have been lucky, his projections indicate he’s expected to allow only 2.4 earned runs today—solid for a starter.

On the mound for St. Louis, Sonny Gray has been effective as well, with a 4-1 record and a respectable ERA of 3.50. His performance suggests he could keep the Cardinals competitive, but with a higher allowed xERA of 4.12, questions linger about his consistency moving forward.

This matchup could hinge on the Phillies’ capability to exploit Gray’s low walk rate against their patient lineup, as they rank 6th in MLB for walks drawn. Betting lines favor the Phillies with a moneyline of -155, suggesting they’re likely to outperform the Cardinals, who come in at +135. With their strong recent form and statistical advantages, the Phillies look primed to seize another victory in front of their home crowd.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray has gone to his four-seamer 5.1% less often this year (18.7%) than he did last year (23.8%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jordan Walker has been unlucky this year, notching a .235 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .308 — a .073 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Brandon Marsh has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 3rd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+4.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in their last 9 games (+10.75 Units / 91% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.10 Units / 24% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.27, Philadelphia Phillies 4.57

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies

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