St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 5/12/2025

On May 12, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park for the first game of their series. The Phillies, currently sitting at 24-16, are enjoying a strong season, while the Cardinals, at 22-19, are performing above average. The stakes are high as both teams look to gain momentum in their respective campaigns.

Cristopher Sanchez is projected to take the mound for the Phillies. He has been a standout this season, with a 4-1 record and an impressive ERA of 2.89, ranking him as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, his 3.51 FIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, indicating potential regression. Sanchez typically pitches around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, making him a solid asset in this matchup.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Matthew Liberatore. With a 3-3 record and a 3.07 ERA, he has shown good potential, but his average ranking as a pitcher means he may struggle against a potent Phillies lineup. Liberatore’s 2.33 FIP indicates he might have been unlucky, suggesting he could improve moving forward. He projects to pitch about 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, which puts him at a disadvantage against a Phillies offense that ranks 9th in MLB.

The Phillies’ offense has been particularly effective, boasting a 5th best team batting average, while the Cardinals rank 2nd in that category, but their power numbers are lacking, sitting 20th in home runs. With the Phillies being significant betting favorites at -185, their implied total of 4.57 runs reflects confidence in their ability to score against a Cardinals bullpen ranked 23rd in MLB. This matchup could tilt in favor of the Phillies, especially considering Sanchez’s elite status and the offensive support he’s likely to receive.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Among all SPs, Matthew Liberatore's fastball spin rate of 2045 rpm ranks in the 6th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Pedro Pages's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.7-mph mark last season has dropped to 85.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Cristopher Sanchez will rack up an average of 17.4 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme flyball batters like Johan Rojas usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Philadelphia has been the #1 offense in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (46.3% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.65 Units / 42% ROI)
• Pedro Pages has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.01, Philadelphia Phillies 4.67

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

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