St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/15/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
• Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 -110, Athletics 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Cardinals -175, Athletics 155
• Total (Over/Under):8 100

St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 62%
• Oakland Athletics - 38%

Projected Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 61.04%
• Oakland Athletics - 38.96%

St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics Game Preview & Prediction

On April 15, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Coliseum in an Interleague matchup. Both teams have struggled this season, with identical 7-9 records, making this an important game for both sides.

The Athletics will be the home team, hoping to turn their season around. Unfortunately, their offense has been lackluster, ranking as the 27th best in MLB. They have particularly struggled with their team batting average, ranking last in the league. However, they have found success in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league in that category. The Athletics' bullpen also faces challenges, ranking 27th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have shown some promise with their offense. They rank 7th in team batting average and 5th in home runs, indicating their ability to generate runs. Their bullpen has been a strength, ranking as the 2nd best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The starting pitchers for this game will be Ross Stripling for the Athletics and Sonny Gray for the Cardinals. Stripling, a right-handed pitcher, has had a tough season with a 0-3 record and a high ERA of 5.50. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Gray, also a right-handed pitcher, has had a strong start to the season with a 1-0 record and a perfect 0.00 ERA. However, his xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

According to the current odds, the Cardinals are the favorites with an implied win probability of 61%, while the Athletics are the underdogs with a 39% win probability.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Sonny Gray to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Willson Contreras is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Oakland (#3-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ross Stripling must realize this, because he has utilized his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 65.4% of the time, placing in the 94th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ryan Noda has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Cardinals vs Athletics Prediction: Cardinals 4.21 - Athletics 3.14

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.