St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick & Preview – 4/17/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Steven Matz - Cardinals
  • Paul Blackburn - Athletics
• Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 115, Athletics 1.5 -135
• Money Line: Cardinals -150, Athletics 130
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 58%
• Oakland Athletics - 42%

Projected Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 58.23%
• Oakland Athletics - 41.77%

St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics Game Preview & Prediction

In an interleague matchup, the Oakland Athletics will take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Coliseum on April 17, 2024. The Athletics, who currently hold a record of 7-10, are having a tough season so far, ranking 28th in MLB. On the other hand, the Cardinals, with a record of 8-9, are experiencing a below-average season.

The Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Paul Blackburn, who has started three games this year and holds a 1-0 win/loss record with an impressive 0.00 ERA. However, his 3.91 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are projected to start left-handed pitcher Steven Matz. Matz has also started three games this season, boasting a 1-0 record and an excellent 1.80 ERA. However, his 4.32 xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

Blackburn is known for his high groundball rate (53 GB%) and will face a powerful Cardinals offense that ranks fifth in MLB in home runs this season. If Blackburn can force the Cardinals to hit the ball on the ground, it may limit their ability to capitalize on their home run power.

The Athletics offense has struggled this season, ranking 28th in MLB overall and 30th in team batting average. Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense ranks 23rd in MLB overall but seventh in team batting average. The Athletics do have an advantage in stolen bases, ranking fifth in MLB, while the Cardinals rank 23rd.

In terms of the bullpen, the Athletics rank 27th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Cardinals claim the top spot. This could give the Cardinals an edge in the later innings.

Based on current odds, the Athletics are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%. The Cardinals, as the betting favorites, hold a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The current Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

While both teams have struggled this season, the Cardinals have a slight edge in both overall performance and betting odds. However, with the home-field advantage, the Athletics may look to defy the odds and put up a strong fight.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

So far this season, St. Louis is a .500 team both at home and on the road, though playing the Athletics should give them better than a 50% chance of winning this road game.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

St. Louis's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Nick Allen, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 84 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 away games (+8.10 Units / 19% ROI)

Cardinals vs Athletics Prediction: Cardinals 4.51 - Athletics 3.59

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