St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Will Warren - Yankees

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 31, 2024, both teams are looking to make an impact in this Interleague matchup. The Yankees currently hold a solid 79-56 record, showcasing their strong performance this season, while the Cardinals sit at 67-68, reflecting an average year. The stakes are high as the Yankees aim to maintain their momentum, especially after their recent impressive outing, a 6-3 win over these same Cardinals.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Will Warren, who has struggled this season with a 0-2 record and a dismal 9.68 ERA. However, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he might be due for better results, indicating some bad luck. In contrast, Kyle Gibson of the Cardinals has a 7-6 record and a more respectable 4.54 ERA, though his 5.04 xERA indicates he might be overperforming. Both pitchers are right-handed, which could lead to an interesting battle.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, leading the league in home runs, which could spell trouble for Gibson. Their projected team total of 5.31 runs reflects their potent lineup, with Austin Wells shining recently as their best hitter. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 19th in offense and will need to step up to compete effectively, especially given their average projection of 4.19 runs.

The projections favor the Yankees significantly, predicting them to score 5.63 runs on average, while the Cardinals are projected for 4.45 runs. With the Yankees' dominant offense and the potential for Warren to bounce back, they are positioned well to secure a victory in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's 90.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph drop off from last season's 91.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

In the last 7 days, Alec Burleson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The St. Louis Cardinals (19.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy set of batters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Will Warren will wring up 16 outs today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Giancarlo Stanton has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last season's 95.2-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

New York's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #1 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 90 games (+18.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+15.35 Units / 33% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.46 vs New York Yankees 5.64

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