St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals in this interleague matchup on August 30, 2024, the stakes are clear. With a solid record of 78-56, the Yankees are eyeing postseason position, while the Cardinals sit at a .500 record of 67-67. This game marks the start of a series that could be pivotal for both teams, although the Cardinals can't afford to fall too far behind in a tight race.

In their last game, the Yankees lost to the Washington Nationals, but they are currently enjoying the form of Aaron Judge, who has been their best hitter over the past week. Judge has recorded 6 hits, 5 RBIs, and 3 home runs in just 6 games, boasting a .316 batting average and a stellar 1.342 OPS. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt has been performing well, with 9 hits and a .429 batting average over the same span.

On the mound, the Yankees are set to start Marcus Stroman, who has posted a record of 9-6 with a 3.88 ERA this season. Despite being ranked as the 152nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Stroman shows an average innings pitched projection of 5.8, which could be critical against a Cardinals offense that ranks 19th in MLB this season. In contrast, Erick Fedde will take the hill for St. Louis. With an ERA of 3.31 and a ranking of 84th best, he brings slightly better metrics to the matchup, but his projections suggest he may struggle against the Yankees’ powerful lineup, especially given their 2nd rank in home runs this season.

The projections favor the Yankees heavily, suggesting they will score around 5.10 runs, against an average of only 4.01 projected for the Cardinals. With their potent offense and recent performances, the Yankees appear poised to take advantage in this matchup, especially with a high Game Total of 9.0 runs on the board.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde has averaged 93.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bats such as Nolan Arenado with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Marcus Stroman who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Collectively, St. Louis Cardinals bats have performed well as far as hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 4th-best in Major League Baseball.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Marcus Stroman has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 16.7% more often this season (62.1%) than he did last season (45.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #1 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 103 games (+15.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.89 vs New York Yankees 4.99

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