St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Prediction – 4/19/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On April 19, 2025, the New York Mets will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field for the third game in their series, after the Mets secured a decisive victory yesterday. The Mets, currently 13-7, are enjoying a strong season, while the Cardinals sit at 9-11, struggling to find their footing.

Kodai Senga, projected to take the mound for the Mets, has been impressive this year with a 2-1 record and an excellent ERA of 1.06. Despite his strong surface numbers, advanced statistics suggest he has been a bit lucky, as indicated by his 3.44 xFIP. Senga's average projections show he can be expected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs with a solid strikeout rate of 6.0 batters. However, he will need to improve on the 4.5 hits and 2.1 walks projected, which could put him in a tough spot against the Cardinals' offense.

On the other side, Matthew Liberatore, with a 1-1 record and a good ERA of 3.93, is expected to provide a challenge for the Mets. However, his underlying metrics paint a different picture, as his 2.61 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve moving forward. Liberatore's projections indicate he’ll pitch around 5.0 innings, giving up about 2.8 earned runs, while striking out only 4.2 batters.

The Mets' offense currently ranks 22nd in the league, which has contributed to their struggles to generate consistent runs. In contrast, the Cardinals boast a much more potent offense, ranking 6th overall, including an impressive 2nd in batting average. With the Mets sitting as favorites, betting markets reflect their high implied team total of 4.77 runs, laying the groundwork for a potentially intriguing matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Matthew Liberatore's 2101.9-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 16th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Nolan Gorman generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Kodai Senga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Throwing 68.2 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season on average, Kodai Senga checks in at the 1st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Pete Alonso has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 13.2% rate last season to 21.5% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+2.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.33, New York Mets 4.83

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Kodai Senga - Mets

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.