St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Prediction – 4/18/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets will host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 18, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup for both teams. Currently, the Mets hold a record of 12-7 and are enjoying a strong start to the season, while the Cardinals sit at 9-10, struggling to find their rhythm. In their last encounter, the Mets narrowly edged out the Cardinals, adding pressure on St. Louis to bounce back in this second game of the series.

On the mound, Mets' David Peterson is projected to start, boasting an impressive 2.70 ERA this season. Despite being ranked the 117th best starting pitcher in MLB, his strong ERA indicates he has been effective, even if his xFIP suggests some luck may be involved. Peterson has had a solid season, with projections indicating he will average 5.4 innings and allow just 2.2 earned runs today, which could be pivotal against a Cardinals offense that ranks 3rd best in MLB.

Conversely, Miles Mikolas will take the hill for St. Louis, but his 9.00 ERA tells a different story. Despite being one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to Power Rankings, Mikolas has a favorable projection today, allowing 2.9 earned runs over 5.3 innings. However, with a low strikeout rate of 16.7% and facing a Mets lineup that struggles to capitalize on such weaknesses, he may find himself in a tough spot.

Offensively, the Mets rank 22nd in the league, while the Cardinals shine with a 1st place batting average. However, with the projections favoring Peterson's ability to limit runs, the Mets could capitalize on their favorable odds of -165, which suggests they might outperform expectations in this matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has a mean strikeout projection of 3.4 batters in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Pedro Pages's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 90.7-mph figure last year has fallen to 83.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

St. Louis Cardinals batters jointly grade out 27th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when using their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, David Peterson will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball batters like Luisangel Acuna are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 17 games (+0.50 Units / 3% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.90 Units / 59% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.95, New York Mets 4.6

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • David Peterson - Mets

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