St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • David Festa - Twins

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 23, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Twins currently sit at 71-56, enjoying a solid season, while the Cardinals are slightly below .500 at 63-64, marking an average campaign. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it's the first game of the series between these two clubs.

The Twins' offense has been impressive this season, ranking 6th in MLB, and they have a high implied team total of 4.54 runs for this game. Their best hitter over the last week has been Ryan Jeffers, who has been on fire, recording 5 hits, 4 runs, and 6 RBIs in just 4 games. With a batting average of .455 and an OPS of 1.811, he poses a significant threat to the Cardinals' pitching.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start David Festa, who has struggled with a 4.96 ERA this year. However, his 3.59 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and he may be due for a turnaround. Festa's average projection of 4.6 innings pitched today is concerning, but he could still limit damage against a Cardinals offense that ranks 19th in MLB.

Conversely, St. Louis will counter with Andre Pallante, who has a better ERA of 4.07. Pallante has made 13 starts and has a solid track record, but his projections indicate he may struggle with hits and walks today. With the Cardinals' lineup lacking power, ranking 22nd in home runs, they will need to capitalize on any opportunities against Festa.

With the Twins favored in this matchup, they look to continue their strong season against a Cardinals team that has not found its footing. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations of a competitive contest.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's high usage percentage of his fastball (68.9% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Matt Carpenter is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Max Kepler has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Minnesota Twins offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+13.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 away games (+5.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.85 vs Minnesota Twins 4.7

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