St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 6/13/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the St. Louis Cardinals for the second game of their series on June 13, 2025. Both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, with Milwaukee sitting at 37-33 and St. Louis just behind at 36-33. The Brewers are a betting favorite with a moneyline of -155, suggesting they're expected to secure a solid victory today.

In last night's matchup, the Brewers showcased their potential with a strong performance, but they still have room for improvement in an offense that ranks just 23rd in MLB. The projections indicate that they are likely to struggle in generating power, as they also rank 24th in home runs. However, they do excel on the bases, ranking 2nd in stolen bases, which could be a key factor if they can get runners on.

Freddy Peralta is projected to start for Milwaukee, boasting an impressive 2.69 ERA and a solid Power Rankings position at 38th among MLB pitchers. While his 4.09 xFIP suggests he might have benefited from some luck, he still projects to allow an average of just 2.2 earned runs today, making him a tough opponent for the Cardinals. On the flip side, St. Louis will send Erick Fedde to the mound. With a 3.54 ERA, he shows some promise, but his 5.06 xFIP indicates he may have had a favorable run of luck himself.

The Brewers' bullpen is ranked 7th overall, which could provide strong support if Peralta runs into trouble. The Cardinals, however, have a bullpen that ranks 22nd, potentially exposing them to late-inning challenges. Given the Brewers' edge in pitching and their favorable home-field advantage, they look to capitalize on their strengths in this pivotal matchup. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a tight contest, but Milwaukee's consistent pitching and speed on the bases position them favorably for a win.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Erick Fedde (34.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 3 FB hitters in Milwaukee's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, batters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Freddy Peralta.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (59.7 vs. 53.8% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Brice Turang has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Milwaukee Brewers batters jointly grade out 30th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 6.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+10.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 22% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.73, Milwaukee Brewers 4.35

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

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