St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/15/2025

On June 15, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field for an intriguing National League Central showdown. Both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, with the Brewers sitting at 38-34 and the Cardinals slightly trailing at 37-34. Notably, the Cardinals edged out the Brewers 8-5 in their previous matchup, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to today's contest.

Quinn Priester is set to take the mound for the Brewers. While he ranks as the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, he has a solid Win/Loss record of 4-2 and a respectable ERA of 3.65 this season. However, his 4.35 SIERA indicates that he may have been somewhat lucky in his performances thus far and might be due for regression. Priester projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs—better than average.

Opposing him will be Miles Mikolas, who has struggled this season, landing among the lower tier of pitchers in MLB. His ERA is slightly above average at 4.48, but his 3.77 FIP suggests he might be due for improvement. Mikolas projects to pitch about 5.2 innings today, potentially allowing 2.7 earned runs. With both pitchers facing offenses that rank poorly in run production, this could lead to a low-scoring affair.

The Brewers' offense ranks 25th overall, struggling particularly with home runs, while the Cardinals are sitting at 13th in offensive rankings. The projections seem to favor the Brewers slightly, as their current moneyline is set at -130 with an implied team total of 4.45 runs. Given the circumstances and the way the teams have been playing, fans can expect a tightly contested game today.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.6% vs. 49% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ivan Herrera has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.7-mph average to last year's 91.5-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the St. Louis Cardinals offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 6.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #30 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Victor Scott II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.15 Units / 46% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.88, Milwaukee Brewers 4.42

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers

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