St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/14/2025

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 14, 2025, both teams are looking to gain ground in the National League Central. The Brewers sit at 38-33, putting them slightly above average this season, while the Cardinals are just below that mark at 36-34. This game marks the third in their series, and the Brewers will look to build on their recent momentum after edging out the Cardinals in a tight match yesterday.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Jose Quintana, who has had an excellent year with a 2.66 ERA over 8 starts, resulting in a 4-1 record. However, his 4.51 xFIP suggests that he may have had some luck on his side and could face challenges moving forward. Quintana's projections indicate he will pitch about 5.6 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, but he could struggle with hits and walks, projected to give up 5.5 hits and 1.8 walks.

Conversely, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has also been average this season, with a 4.75 ERA and a 4-3 record over 13 starts. Pallante's projections show he is likely to perform better than his ERA indicates, as his 3.70 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky. He projects to pitch slightly longer than Quintana at 5.7 innings, giving up 2.5 earned runs as well.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 25th in MLB, struggling to find consistent power while excelling in stolen bases. The Cardinals come in with a stronger offensive performance, ranking 13th overall and boasting a 5th-best team batting average. With the Brewers favored at -125, there’s an opportunity for value bettors to consider the matchup, especially with the Brewers projected win probability potentially exceeding their implied probability. Keeping an eye on how these pitchers perform could be key in deciding the outcome of this tightly contested game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

In his previous start, Andre Pallante performed well and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Nolan Gorman has big-time HR ability (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (31.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana struggles to strike batters out (6th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Because flyball hitters have a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Jose Quintana and his 44.4% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in today's outing being matched up with 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Sal Frelick has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 74.4-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+15.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.18, Milwaukee Brewers 4.08

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers

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