St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks 6/19/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Yonny Chirinos - Marlins

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 19, 2024, at LoanDepot Park, fans and bettors alike should brace for an intriguing National League matchup. This is the third game in the series, with the Marlins struggling at 24-49 and the Cardinals sitting at a more balanced 36-36. Both teams are looking to gain momentum as they approach the midpoint of the season.

The Marlins are projected to start Yonny Chirinos, a right-handed pitcher who has had a rough season. Chirinos is expected to pitch 4.9 innings on average, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 1.5 walks—numbers that paint a bleak picture. On the flip side, the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Gibson, also a right-hander. Gibson's 3.44 ERA is commendable, but his 3.94 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate this season. Despite being considered a bad pitcher by advanced metrics, Gibson has managed a 5-2 record over 14 starts.

Offensively, both teams have their struggles. The Marlins rank 30th in offense and are last in home runs with just 55 on the season. Their best hitter lately has been Jazz Chisholm, who boasts a .478 batting average and a 1.214 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 21st in offense, with Ivan Herrera standing out recently with a .444 batting average and a 1.111 OPS in his last five games.

The bullpen could be a deciding factor. The Marlins rank 21st in advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Cardinals are 6th, indicating a significant edge for St. Louis in late-game situations.

Despite the Marlins being significant underdogs with a moneyline of +145, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, pegs this as a closer contest than the betting market suggests. The model gives Miami a 49% chance to win, compared to the implied 39%, suggesting potential value in betting on the Marlins.

With both teams struggling offensively and the pitching matchups fairly even, this game could be tighter than expected. Bettors might find value in taking a chance on Miami, especially with the Marlins' current odds offering enticing returns.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's 90.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph drop off from last season's 91.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Mike Siani's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 84.9-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 78.4-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Generating 14 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Yonny Chirinos places in the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Josh Bell is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Miami Marlins offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 49 games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.58 vs Miami Marlins 4.03

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