St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 5/15/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a clash of struggling teams, the Los Angeles Angels will host the St. Louis Cardinals in an interleague matchup at Angel Stadium on May 15, 2024. Both teams have been having a terrible season so far, with the Angels holding a record of 15-27 and the Cardinals sitting at 17-24.

The Angels will send right-handed pitcher Griffin Canning to the mound, who according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, is ranked as the #174 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Canning has started eight games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 5.75, which is considered horrible. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Canning will be right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn of the Cardinals. Lynn has started eight games this season, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.79, which is considered good. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and is likely to perform worse going forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Angels have an average offense, ranking 18th in MLB and 12th in team batting average. However, they excel in the power department, ranking 3rd in team home runs. On the other hand, the Cardinals have been struggling offensively, ranking 28th in MLB and 7th in team batting average.

Both teams have shown weaknesses in different areas. The Angels have struggled with stolen bases, ranking 27th in MLB, while the Cardinals have struggled with their overall offensive production, sitting at 28th in the league. However, the Cardinals have an advantage in bullpen strength, ranking 3rd in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Angels' bullpen is rated as the second worst in the league.

Considering the projected starting pitchers and offensive rankings, the Cardinals seem to have the edge in this matchup. However, both teams have been struggling overall, so it could be a close game. The current odds give the Cardinals a slight advantage, but the Angels' implied team total suggests they could put up a fight.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Lance Lynn has relied on his cutter 6% more often this season (29.2%) than he did last year (23.2%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Nolan Gorman's quickness has fallen off this year. His 26.5 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.7 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning's fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this year (92.5 mph) below where it was last year (94 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Logan O'Hoppe has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 28.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 42.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 60% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.88 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.23

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