St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Picks 8/10/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 10, 2024, both teams are looking to gain traction in their respective standings. The Royals currently sit with a record of 64-53, enjoying an above-average season, while the Cardinals are at 60-57, hovering around average. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they aim to solidify their positions in the playoff race.

In their last outing, the Cardinals won while putting pressure on a Royals pitching staff which will be tested again as Michael Wacha takes the mound. Wacha, ranked 92nd among starting pitchers by the leading MLB projection system, has a solid 3.55 ERA this season but has shown signs of regression, as indicated by his 4.27 xFIP. He is projected to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits—averaging 5.6—could be a concern against a Cardinals offense that ranks 14th in batting average.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has had an up-and-down season with a 4.43 ERA and is ranked 87th among MLB starters. Pallante's low strikeout rate (17.8 K%) could be problematic against a Royals lineup that excels at making contact, ranking 2nd in the league for the least strikeouts. He, too, is projected for 5.5 innings but is expected to allow 3.0 earned runs—an indication that he may struggle against a Royals offense that, while only 19th in home runs, ranks 11th in batting average.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, the betting markets suggest a close contest. The Royals hold a moneyline of -135, translating to an implied team total of 4.76 runs, while the Cardinals sit at +115 with an average implied total of 4.24 runs. Given the current form and the matchups on the mound, the Royals may have the edge in this interleague clash.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Andre Pallante (60% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 4 FB hitters in Kansas City's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.231) may lead us to conclude that Victor Scott has experienced some negative variance this year with his .153 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

As a team, St. Louis Cardinals hitters have done well when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 5th-best in the game.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

This year, Michael Wacha has introduced a new pitch to his repertoire (a slider), working it in on 8.4% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kansas City's 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 59 games at home (+9.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 44% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.71 vs Kansas City Royals 4.79

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