St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 5/18/2025

The Kansas City Royals will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 18, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are performing reasonably well, with the Royals sitting at 25-22 and the Cardinals at 26-20. The Royals are looking to build momentum after a close-fought game yesterday, while the Cardinals are riding a wave of confidence after their recent performances.

Michael Wacha is slated to take the mound for the Royals. Despite a 3-4 record, his ERA of 2.96 is indicative of his above-average pitching this season. However, with a xFIP of 4.30, it's clear that he has benefitted from some good fortune. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings today, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.2 hits and 1.6 walks could be problematic against a potent Cardinals lineup.

Matthew Liberatore, the Cardinals' projected starter, has been more of an enigma. With a 3-3 record and an ERA of 3.11, he has been solid but not spectacular. His FIP of 2.30 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and the projections indicate he may allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.2 innings while also struggling with walks and hits.

Offensively, the Cardinals boast the 7th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by a 2nd place ranking in team batting average. In contrast, the Royals rank 25th in overall offensive talent and are last in home runs. This discrepancy could play a pivotal role in the game.

With both teams' bullpens ranked poorly—21st for the Royals and 24th for the Cardinals—this game could see plenty of scoring opportunities. The current Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive affair. Given the Royals' slight underperformance in implied win probability, they may have the edge to surprise, especially playing at Kauffman Stadium.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Because flyball batters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Matthew Liberatore and his 43.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in this outing facing 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Willson Contreras has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 90.4-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha has utilized his change-up 7% less often this year (25.3%) than he did last season (32.3%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Bats such as Salvador Perez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Matthew Liberatore who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.5% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 38 games (+20.30 Units / 46% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+11.55 Units / 66% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+9.60 Units / 45% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.57, Kansas City Royals 4.67

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

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