St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 5/17/2025

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 17, 2025, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup. The Royals enter the game with a record of 25-21, while the Cardinals are slightly ahead at 25-20. Both teams are showing signs of competitiveness this season, with the Royals experiencing an above-average performance and the Cardinals enjoying a solid season.

In yesterday's game, the Royals faced a tough loss against the Cardinals, falling 10-3. With this being the second game of the series, both teams will be eager to make adjustments and claim a victory. The Royals will look to their projected starter, Noah Cameron, who has a perfect 0.00 ERA this season, although his 5.89 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate in his limited appearances. Cameron has pitched just one game this year, earning a win, but he projects to struggle with high hit and walk numbers today.

On the other hand, Miles Mikolas takes the mound for the Cardinals. Despite being one of the weaker pitchers in MLB, with a 4.35 ERA and a 5.13 xFIP, Mikolas managed to perform well in his last start, allowing just one earned run over five innings. His low strikeout rate could benefit the Royals, who rank as the 2nd least-strikeout-heavy offense in MLB.

The Royals’ offense, however, has been underwhelming, ranking 26th overall, and they struggle with power, sitting at 30th in home runs. In contrast, the Cardinals boast a much stronger offensive lineup, ranking 7th in MLB. With the Royals projected to score 4.40 runs and the Cardinals at 4.10, this matchup could very well hinge on pitching, making Cameron's performance crucial for Kansas City.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (56.5% vs. 49% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Despite posting a .230 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has suffered from bad luck given the .079 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .309.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

In today's matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.3% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Noah Cameron was rolling in his previous outing and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Over the past week, Salvador Perez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Kansas City Royals (20.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone batting order of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.62, Kansas City Royals 4.73

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Noah Cameron - Royals

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