St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael McGreevy - Cardinals
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies, who have already been eliminated from the postseason picture with a disappointing 60-96 record, will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Coors Field on September 24, 2024. The Cardinals, sitting at a middling 79-77, aim to end their season on a strong note.

On the mound, the Rockies will start Ryan Feltner, a right-hander ranked as the 178th-best starter in MLB. His 3-10 win/loss record and 4.73 ERA suggest struggles, though his 4.20 xFIP indicates some potential for improvement. On the other side, the Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy. With only one start under his belt this season, McGreevy boasts an impressive 0.90 ERA, yet his 2.83 xFIP hints at the likelihood of regression.

Offensively, the Rockies are as average as it gets, ranking 19th overall. They've been buoyed by the recent form of Ryan McMahon, who has recorded a .313 batting average with a .951 OPS over the past week. For the Cardinals, Brendan Donovan has been the standout performer, hitting .391 with a remarkable 1.136 OPS during the same period. Both teams are projected to score generously in this high-altitude showdown, with the total game runs set at 10.5.

The Cardinals have the edge with a slightly more consistent pitching and hitting combination. The markets have pegged them at a slight favorite with a -115 moneyline and a 51% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, offers a more balanced outlook, projecting a 50% win probability for both teams.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Michael McGreevy performed well in his previous game started and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Lars Nootbaar is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The St. Louis Cardinals offense projects for the most runs of all teams today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Feltner to throw 82 pitches in today's game (9th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, batters like Brendan Rodgers who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Michael McGreevy.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .337 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Michael Toglia has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+8.05 Units / 50% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.77 vs Colorado Rockies 5.3

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