St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 6/27/2025

The Cleveland Guardians are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals in an Interleague matchup on June 27, 2025, at Progressive Field. Both teams enter this game on a down note, with the Guardians falling 6-0 to the Toronto Blue Jays the previous day, while the Cardinals were also unable to find their rhythm, suffering a 3-0 defeat to the Chicago Cubs.

Currently, the Guardians' record stands at 40-39, marking an average season, while the Cardinals hold a slightly better 44-38 record, indicating an above-average campaign. The Guardians are projected to start Luis Ortiz, who is ranked as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he's had an above-average performance overall despite a 4-8 record and a 4.30 ERA this season.

On the other side, the Cardinals will send Sonny Gray to the mound. Gray is currently ranked 28th among pitchers and boasts a solid 7-2 record with a 3.72 ERA. His performance has been impressive, with projections indicating he might allow only 2.5 earned runs in this matchup, which would be above average.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 25th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Cardinals find themselves in a more favorable 14th position. Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Guardians' moneyline set at +105, indicating a 47% implied win probability. This presents an interesting opportunity for bettors, especially considering the Cardinals' slight edge in implied win probability at -125. With Ortiz's potential for a bounce-back performance and the Guardians' solid bullpen ranked 10th, this matchup could prove to be more competitive than expected.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Extreme flyball bats like Nolan Arenado tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Ortiz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Luis L. Ortiz (44.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in St. Louis's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Daniel Schneemann has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.5% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 68% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.92, Cleveland Guardians 4.34

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians

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