St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 6/29/2025

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 29, 2025, this Interleague matchup carries significant weight, especially with both teams looking to improve their standings. The Guardians sit at 40-41, hovering around .500, while the Cardinals boast a more favorable 46-38 record. The Guardians' recent performance has been inconsistent, with diminishing hopes of winning their division.

In their last outing, the Guardians dropped a close game to the Cardinals, highlighting the challenges they face in this series. Starting for Cleveland is Logan Allen, whose season has been a mix of highs and lows. With a Win/Loss record of 5-5 and an ERA of 4.25 this season, Allen ranks as the 272nd best starting pitcher in baseball, making him one of the less effective options in the league. Projections indicate that he will pitch an average of 5.4 innings today, allowing around 2.9 earned runs, which is a slight positive given the recent struggles of the Guardians' offense ranked 26th in MLB.

On the other side, St. Louis will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has demonstrated steadier performances. With an ERA of 3.96 and a slightly better FIP of 2.97, Liberatore is positioned as an average pitcher. His projection suggests he will also pitch approximately 5.3 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs.

Batting-wise, the Guardians face an uphill battle against a Cardinals offense that ranks 15th overall. The Guardians have struggled to produce runs consistently, particularly in their ability to make solid contact, which reflects their low-ranked offense. However, the Guardians' projected team total of 4.10 runs shows that some optimism remains, especially as they look to capitalize on any mistakes from Liberatore. With the total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should closely monitor how these two pitchers perform, as the outcome may hinge on which team can better support their starter.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Matthew Liberatore (42.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cleveland's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Allen has utilized his secondary pitches 6.2% more often this year (57.9%) than he did last season (51.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Over the last 7 days, Jose Ramirez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+9.69 Units / 11% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+14.65 Units / 244% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.39, Cleveland Guardians 4.09

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

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