St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 8/29/2025
The Cincinnati Reds will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ballpark on Friday night. Both of these teams are around the .500 mark for the season and are trying to hang around in the NL Wild Card race. A win here would be valuable for either team in service of that goal. Before first pitch from Cincinnati, continue reading below to get my Cardinals vs Reds prediction for the night.
Our Cardinals vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Friday, August 29, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals) vs Zack Littell (Reds)
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: FDSOH and FDSMW
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Matthew Liberatore has had a challenging season for the Cardinals. He enters tonight’s start with a 4.27 ERA and a 6-11 record. His performance has been erratic and he’ll face a Reds lineup that’s more comfortable at home. Zack Littell has been more steady and has a 3.62 ERA for the season. But Littell has allowed 28 home runs and is always in danger of getting taken deep too often.
Playoff Race
Both teams are still within striking distance in the NL Wild Card race. The Reds enter this weekend’s action four games out of the final Wild Card spot and the Cardinals are 6.5 games back. Both have some work to do but there is still plenty of baseball left to be played this year.
Recent Team Streaks
- Cincinnati has struggled recently. They 1-4 in their last five games and they were swept over three games by the LA Dodgers in their last series.
- St. Louis is under .500 overall and has gone 2-3 in their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Statistic | Prop |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (Reds) | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals) | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
| Alec Burleson (Cardinals) | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- St. Louis holds a 4-3 lead in the season series between these two teams this year.
- St. Louis enters this series with a 29-37 road record in 2025.
- Cincinnati comes into today’s action with a 36-29 record at home.
Cardinals vs Reds Model Projection
Score Projection: Reds 5 – Cardinals 3
Win Probability: Reds 55%, Cardinals 45%
Final Thoughts
Both of these teams have been consistently inconsistent this season. But I think the Reds are the team most likely to come away with a win in this matchup. Cincinnati has the edge in the starting pitching department with Littell on the mound. The Reds are also much better at home than they are on the road and we should see Cincinnati come away with an important win for their Wild Card hopes here.
