St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 4/28/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the National League Central. The Reds sit at a respectable 15-13, showcasing an above-average season, while the Cardinals are struggling at 12-16, marking a disappointing start. Both teams have been inconsistent; however, the Reds' offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB this season, and they are projected to score 4.35 runs today, reflecting a robust offensive capability.

In their last outing, the Reds' ace was particularly effective, contributing to their overall strong performance. On the mound, the Reds are set to start Nick Martinez, who, despite a 0-3 record and an ERA of 5.40, has shown some signs of potential with a 4.27 xFIP, suggesting he may be due for better results. Martinez's average projection of 5.3 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed aligns with his performance this season.

Opposing him, the Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound. Pallante, with a 2-1 record and a solid ERA of 4.05, has been more fortunate than skillful, with projections indicating he could regress. His projected performance suggests he will pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, which could be tested against the Reds' potent lineup.

Given the Reds' offensive depth, coupled with the Cardinals' struggles, oddsmakers have set the game total at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive matchup. With the Reds' current moneyline at -120, they are favored to win, and betting markets reflect this sentiment. While both teams have underwhelming bullpens (ranked 21st and 22nd respectively), the Reds' overall edge in hitting and the potential for Martinez to break through could play a crucial role in this series opener.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (93.1 mph) below where it was last season (94.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball hitters like Nolan Arenado are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Matt McLain has big-time HR ability (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante is a pitch-to-contact type (19th percentile K%) — great news for McLain.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt McLain has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+10.60 Units / 151% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.94, Cincinnati Reds 4.78

• Date: April 28, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.