St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 6/18/2025

On June 18, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals at Guaranteed Rate Field in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The White Sox continue to struggle this season with a disappointing 23-50 record, while the Cardinals are faring better at 38-35. Recently, St. Louis showcased their offensive potential, with a strong performance leading to a decisive victory over Chicago in their previous matchup.

Sean Burke is projected to take the mound for the White Sox, but he has not lived up to expectations this season, currently ranking 300th among MLB starting pitchers. With a 3-7 record and an average ERA of 4.71, Burke’s struggles have been compounded by a poor bullpen and an offense that ranks 30th in MLB. He projects to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, which poses a significant challenge against a powerful Cardinals lineup.

On the other side, Sonny Gray is slated to start for St. Louis. Ranked 28th among starting pitchers, Gray boasts a solid 7-2 record with a good 3.84 ERA. His performance has been hampered by some bad luck, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.05, which suggests he could perform even better. Gray's projections show he is likely to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing just 2.4 earned runs.

With the White Sox’s offense at the bottom of the league in batting average and home runs, they are facing an uphill battle against the Cardinals, who rank 12th in overall offense and 4th in batting average. St. Louis will be looking to capitalize on the favorable matchup as they aim to solidify their position in the standings. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting a competitive atmosphere for this clash.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The Chicago White Sox have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Sean Burke's 2546-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 97th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Josh Rojas's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.2-mph mark last season has lowered to 84.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Ryan Noda pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.58, Chicago White Sox 4.19

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Sean Burke - White Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.