St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Jun 17, 2025

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends
  • Props

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 6/17/2025

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on June 17, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position with a season record of 23-49, placing them at the bottom of the standings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are right in the mix with a record of 37-35, fighting for a playoff spot. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams, adding a sense of urgency for the White Sox to turn their season around.

In their most recent outings, the White Sox have struggled, but Shane Smith will take the mound aiming to capitalize on a recent strong outing, where he achieved a stellar ERA of 2.37 this year. Although his 4.09 xFIP suggests he has benefited from some good fortune, Smith's command on the mound has led to a respectable Win/Loss record of 3-3. However, he projects to pitch just 4.9 innings, which could pose a challenge, especially considering the White Sox bullpen is ranked 30th in the league.

Conversely, the Cardinals will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has underperformed relative to his talent level this year, holding a 3.93 ERA but a more optimistic 3.16 FIP. Liberatore's projection of 5.1 innings today indicates a moderate level of expectation, although he also struggles with walks and hits allowed.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 30th in the league, with a particularly weak showing in batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Cardinals boast a solid 12th-best ranking, fueled by a potent batting average that ranks 4th overall. The current game total stands at 8.5 runs, suggesting a reasonably competitive matchup. With the Cardinals favored at -150, they appear well-positioned to take advantage of their stronger offensive capabilities and the White Sox's pitching inconsistencies. Betting trends favor the Cardinals to continue their push for a playoff spot.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Matthew Liberatore's 2076-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 9th percentile among all starting pitchers.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Nolan Arenado generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Smith.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Shane Smith is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #4 HR venue in MLB — today.

  • This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Mike Tauchman is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Austin Slater has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Miguel Vargas has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 47% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.41, Chicago White Sox 4.72

  • Date: June 17, 2025
  • Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
    • Shane Smith - White Sox

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.

Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-131
72% STL
+112
28% CHW

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-119
35% UN
9.0/-102
65% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+118
61% STL
+1.5/-143
39% CHW

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
CHW
4.59
ERA
4.60
.268
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.43
WHIP
1.38
.322
BABIP
.295
8.3%
BB%
10.2%
20.4%
K%
24.3%
69.8%
LOB%
72.5%
.259
Batting Avg
.238
.436
SLG
.386
.770
OPS
.681
.333
OBP
.295
STL
Team Records
CHW
27-17
Home
19-26
22-26
Road
11-36
33-26
vRHP
23-49
16-17
vLHP
7-13
21-28
vs>.500
17-32
28-15
vs<.500
13-30
5-5
Last10
4-6
12-8
Last20
7-13
15-15
Last30
11-19
M. Liberatore
S. Smith
45.2
Innings
N/A
10
GS
N/A
2-4
W-L
N/A
5.72
ERA
N/A
5.91
K/9
N/A
3.55
BB/9
N/A
0.79
HR/9
N/A
58.5%
LOB%
N/A
7.3%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.61
FIP
N/A
5.44
xFIP
N/A
.276
AVG
N/A
14.4%
K%
N/A
8.7%
BB%
N/A
5.37
SIERA
N/A

M. Liberatore

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

S. Smith

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL CHW
STL CHW
Consensus
-153
+132
-131
+112
-150
+123
-138
+113
-164
+138
-132
+112
-159
+132
-137
+115
Open
Current
Book
STL CHW
STL CHW
Consensus
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+112)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+117)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-121)
8.0 (-101)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
8.0 (-121)
8.0 (-101)
9.5 (-102)
9.5 (-119)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-117)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-106)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
8.0 (-125)
8.0 (+105)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)

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Home MLB Picks St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 6/17/2025