St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/14/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Jordan Wicks - Cubs

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 14, 2024, at Wrigley Field in a National League Central showdown. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Cubs at 33-36 and the Cardinals at 33-34. While the Cubs are having a below-average season, the Cardinals are performing just slightly better.

On the mound, the Cubs will start lefty Jordan Wicks, who has posted a 4.44 ERA and a 1-2 record over five starts this year. Despite these average numbers, Wicks's xFIP of 3.77 suggests he has been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will counter with right-hander Kyle Gibson, who boasts a 4-2 record and a 3.76 ERA over 13 starts. However, Gibson's peripheral stats, including a 5.06 xERA, indicate he has been fortunate and might regress.

Offensively, the Cubs have struggled with consistency. They rank 26th in team batting average and 18th in home runs, but they do have a bright spot in their stolen bases, ranking 11th in MLB. David Bote has been their standout hitter over the past week, recording a .500 average and a 1.100 OPS in five games. On the flip side, the Cardinals' offense hasn't been much better, ranking 21st overall and 22nd in home runs. Brendan Donovan has been a key contributor recently, batting .364 with an OPS of .962 over the last week.

Bullpen performance could also play a crucial role in this matchup. The Cubs' bullpen is ranked 22nd, while the Cardinals boast the 6th-best bullpen, according to advanced Power Rankings. This discrepancy could be a deciding factor in a close game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a 54% win probability for this game, slightly better than the betting market's implied probability of 50%. With both teams struggling offensively and the Cubs having a slight edge in starting pitching luck, there appears to be value in backing Chicago in this contest.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (60% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Brendan Donovan is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jordan Wicks was firing on all cylinders in his previous GS and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Miguel Amaya's quickness has declined this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.96 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Patrick Wisdom pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.10 Units / 41% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 32% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.6 vs Chicago Cubs 3.74

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