St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/3/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on August 3, 2024, in a crucial National League Central matchup. The Cubs hold a record of 54-58, finding themselves below average this season, while the Cardinals are slightly ahead at 56-54, indicating an average performance thus far. Both teams are looking to gain momentum in what has been a competitive series; this is the third game between them, with the Cubs eager to keep things rolling after winning the last two matchups.

Projected starters Jameson Taillon for the Cubs and Kyle Gibson for the Cardinals represent an interesting pitching duel. Taillon, despite ranking as the 134th best starting pitcher in MLB and having a solid ERA of 3.35, has shown signs of inconsistency, especially with his xFIP of 4.19, suggesting he might struggle going forward. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs, though he also tends to give up a concerning 5.3 hits per game.

On the other hand, Gibson has started 20 games this season with a respectable ERA of 3.97, but his higher xERA of 4.94 indicates some luck in his performance. He also projects to pitch about 5.3 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, making this matchup closer than many might expect.

The Cubs' offense, ranked 21st in MLB, has had a rough time producing runs, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 17th. However, the projections favor the Cubs, suggesting they might score an average of 4.43 runs compared to the Cardinals' 4.25. With Taillon facing a high-walk offense like the Cubs, they may find opportunities to capitalize on Gibson's control issues, making this an intriguing matchup for bettors.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's 90.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.3-mph decrease from last year's 91.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Tallying 17.4 outs per outing this year on average, Jameson Taillon falls in the 82nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.296) may lead us to conclude that Pete Crow-Armstrong has experienced some negative variance this year with his .237 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 105 games (+10.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 away games (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 48% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.48 vs Chicago Cubs 4.66

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