St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/1/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: August 1, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Sonny Gray must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 58.9% of the time, placing in the 77th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Siani can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.8% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all the teams today, the best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .236 mark is quite a bit lower than his .292 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+13.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 away games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 31 games (+10.00 Units / 30% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.45 vs Chicago Cubs 4.31

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