St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 7/6/2025

NL Central rivals will face off again in Chicago on Sunday evening. The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs split the first two games of their series this weekend. In this rubber match, the Cubs are favored, but anything can happen in this division rivalry game. Here, I break down this game and make my Cardinals vs Cubs prediction.

Our Cardinals vs Cubs Pick

• Pick: Over 7.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
• Date & Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 6:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd (8‑3, 2.65 ERA) vs Erick Fedde (3‑8, 4.56 ERA)
• Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Broadcast: ESPN

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Matthew Boyd has been outstanding, with an 8-3 record and 2.65 ERA. He has more strikeouts than hits allowed this season and will look to lock down the Cardinals in this game.
• Erick Fedde has struggled, posting a 4.56 ERA and 1.424 WHIP. He is 3-8 on the season and the Cardinals need more from him if they are going to pull closer to the Cubs in the NL Central standings.

Bullpen Usage

Pitching has not been a strength for either of these teams in this series. Both games have seen a combined 14 runs scored and the bullpens will need to step up if they are going to limit the offenses in this game.

Recent Team Streaks

• The Cubs have won 7 of their last 10 games, and they are 29-16 at home on the season.
• The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and they are 22-25 on the road in 2025.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Cubs and Cardinals are tied 3-3 in their season series so far this year.
• The Cardinals have covered the runline 55.6% of the time this season, the fourth-highest percentage in MLB.
• Chicago has gone over the total in 56.1% of their games, the third-highest percentage in MLB.

Cardinals vs Cubs Model Projection

Score Projection: Chicago 5 – St. Louis 3
Win Probability: Chicago 63%, St. Louis 37%

Final Thoughts

The Cubs should be able to win Sunday’s rubber match against the rival Cardinals. Boyd is pitching much better than Fedde and the offense of the Cubs tends to be more dangerous. But instead of taking a side in that matchup, I’m going with the over. I project this game to have right around eight runs, which would put it over the total of 7.5. And with the high-scoring nature of the last two games between these teams, we could have more offensive fireworks to close out July 4th weekend.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.