St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 7/4/2025
This Friday afternoon, a long-running National League Central rivalry reignites as the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Cubs open as moderate favorites, as they look to extend their lead over their rivals in the NL Central standings on July 4th. Here, I break down this division matchup and make my Cardinals vs Cubs prediction for the day. Pick: Cubs moneyline (-158) Confidence: ★★★☆☆ Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ Colin Rea has been surprisingly effective for the Cubs since mid‑June, going 2‑1 with a solid 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. Mikolas has struggled this season with a 4.76 ERA. He most recently allowed six earned runs in just four innings on June 28. With both pitchers having ERAs over 4.00, both offenses will like their chances to do damage today. St. Louis figures to be active with their pen early, with Mikolas likely exiting by the fifth. The question is whether their bullpen can keep them in contention in this game. The Cubs have a better pen, ranking second in the league in bullpen ERA, which should give them an advantage late in this matchup. Score Projection: Cubs 5 – Cardinals 4 Win Probability: Cubs 58%, Cardinals 42% For me, the Cubs are in a great spot to extend their NL Central lead at home on Friday. Rea’s steadier form on the mound and home‑field advantage give the Cubs a clear edge over the struggling Cardinals. Mikolas’ inconsistency and St. Louis’ recent offensive slump further tilt the scales in Chicago’s favor. I’ll be backing the Cubs on the moneyline here.Our Cardinals vs Cubs Pick
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly
Promo Code:
Click To Claim Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly
Promo Code:
Click To Claim Game Snapshot
Key Storylines
Pitching form
Bullpen usage
Recent team streaks
Best Player Props
Player Prop Odds Seiya Suzuki (CHC) Over 1.5 Total Bases -125 Pete Crow‑Armstrong (CHC) Over 0.5 Home Runs +330 Betting Trends & H2H
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Model Projection
Final Thoughts
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io features affiliate links to licensed online casinos, sportsbooks, and gambling platforms. That means if you click on them and end up signing up or making a deposit, we might earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only work with licensed and reputable online casinos, social casinos and sportsbooks. Our content whether it’s reviews, guides, or betting tips is written with the goal of being honest, helpful, and based on real experience. While we do earn through affiliate partnerships, it doesn’t affect our recommendations. If a site isn’t safe or doesn’t meet our standards, we won’t promote it. Simple as that. We also take responsible gambling seriously. We encourage all our readers to gamble safely, set limits, and know when to take a break. Have questions? Feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to chat.
