St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 7/5/2025

The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, July 5, 2025, in the second game of their weekend series. The Cubs enter as favorites, after they demolished the Cardinals 11-3 in the first game of the series on Friday. Here, I break down this classic NL Central rivalry game and make my Cubs vs Cardinals prediction for Saturday afternoon.

Our Cubs vs Cardinals Pick

• Pick: Cubs moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals
• Date & Time: Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cubs – Drew Pomeranz (2‑1, 0.00 ERA)
  • Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore (6‑6, 3.70 ERA)
• Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Broadcast: Marquee Sports Network / FDSMW

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Drew Pomeranz has yet to allow an earned run through 23.1 innings this season, averaging 8.9 K/9. His ability to contain left-handed hitters (.177 average against) makes him a tough customer for St. Louis to deal with.
• Matthew Liberatore is on a solid roll, logging three consecutive quality starts with a 3.70 ERA on the season. He’s pitching to contact early and averaging nearly 6 innings per start, so he’s likely to keep this game close.

Bullpen usage

Chicago’s bullpen is second-best in baseball with a 3.22 ERA. The Cubs will have the rest advantage in the pen as well, after they scored 11 runs against the Cardinals yesterday, forcing St. Louis to go to its pen early and often.

Recent team streaks

• Chicago has won four games in a row coming into today’s game.
• St. Louis has lost four straight, getting swept by the Pirates before losing their series opener to the Cubs yesterday.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Last 5 games: Cubs are 4-1, Cardinals are 1-4.
• Cardinals are 26-27 as underdogs so far this season.
• The Cubs are 42-18 as favorites this season, winning 70% in that situation this year.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Model Projection

Score Projection: Cubs 4 – Cardinals 2

Win Probability: Cubs 60%, Cardinals 40%

Final Thoughts

This game has a total that suggests some offense is expected, but quality starters could keep it tight. Pomeranz’s spotless ERA gives the Cubs an edge, and Chicago’s offense, even against lefties, has enough pop to back him up. My model favors the Cubs by a decent margin, so backing Chicago to win on the moneyline is my top play for bettors here.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.