St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 4/5/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On April 5, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park in an exciting interleague matchup. Both teams are closely matched, with the Red Sox sitting at 4-4 and the Cardinals at 4-3, making this a pivotal game early in the season. In their previous encounter, the Cardinals fell to the Red Sox, adding pressure on the home team to even the series.

The Red Sox will send Richard Fitts to the mound, who has struggled so far this season with a 0-1 record and an average ERA of 4.50. While projections indicate he may be due for better luck, his current status as the 237th best starting pitcher in MLB raises concerns. Boston's offense has underperformed, particularly in batting average and home runs. However, they do boast a strong ability to draw walks, which could exploit Fitts' high walk rate (9.5 BB%).

In contrast, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has made a strong start to the season with a 1-0 record and a solid ERA of 3.60. Ranked 74th among starting pitchers, Pallante's low strikeout rate could be a factor, especially facing a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup. Nonetheless, his control issues may give Boston opportunities to capitalize.

The projections favor the Red Sox in this matchup, suggesting they could secure a high team total of 4.66 runs. With the Cardinals' offense ranking 5th overall in MLB, including a strong 3rd in batting average, this game promises to deliver high stakes for both sides. Bettors should keep an eye on how the dynamics of pitching and offensive capabilities play out as these two teams look to gain momentum early in the season.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's high utilization percentage of his fastball (69% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Scott generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Richard Fitts.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Richard Fitts's 2439.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 89th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Triston Casas has big-time HR ability (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante struggles to strike batters out (24th percentile K%) — great news for Casas.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Triston Casas, Connor Wong, Trevor Story).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Victor Scott II has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.20 Units / 120% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Richard Fitts - Red Sox

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