St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 5/28/2025

On May 28, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in an interleague matchup. The Orioles (19-35) are struggling this season and are currently sitting at the bottom of the standings, while the Cardinals (31-24) are performing well and have positioned themselves as a competitive team in the National League.

In their last game, the Cardinals secured a victory, continuing their strong run, while the Orioles are looking to bounce back after another disappointing performance. Baltimore's struggles are exacerbated by the projected matchup on the mound, where Cade Povich takes the ball for the Orioles. Povich has been less than stellar this season, with a 1-3 record and a below-average ERA of 4.86. His advanced stats indicate he has been unlucky, as his xFIP of 3.99 suggests he could improve if he receives better defensive support.

Conversely, Miles Mikolas, projected to start for the Cardinals, offers a more reliable presence on the mound with a solid 4-2 record and a good ERA of 3.51. However, the projections indicate he may have benefitted from some good fortune, as his xFIP is considerably higher at 5.00. Notably, while Mikolas is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a high-strikeout Orioles offense, this matchup could play to his advantage.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 20th in MLB, struggling to generate consistent runs despite ranking 10th in home runs. The Cardinals, on the other hand, sit 11th in overall offense and boast an impressive 5th ranking in team batting average, which should pose a challenge for the struggling Orioles' pitching staff.

With the Orioles' bullpen ranked 4th in MLB and the Cardinals' bullpen sitting at 23rd, the late-game dynamics could be crucial in determining the outcome. The current moneyline reflects a close contest, with the Orioles favored at -125, suggesting that oddsmakers see potential for a competitive game despite the teams' differing trajectories this season.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #3 HR venue in MLB in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.7% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Cade Povich in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season's 92.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today’s version of the Orioles projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .319 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .332 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+8.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• Ryan O'Hearn has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.5, Baltimore Orioles 4.58

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.