St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 5/26/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 26, 2025, both teams are looking to make a statement. The Orioles, sitting at 18-34, are struggling this season, while the Cardinals boast a more respectable 30-23 record. This matchup is crucial for both sides, with both teams looking to extend their respective winning streaks.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Charlie Morton for the Orioles and Erick Fedde for the Cardinals. Morton has had a particularly tough year, with a Win/Loss record of 0-7 and an ERA of 7.68, ranking him as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his xFIP of 4.72 suggests he might be due for some positive regression.

On the other side, Fedde has been more effective, holding a 3-3 record with a solid 3.77 ERA. However, his higher xFIP of 5.07 indicates he may have been somewhat lucky this season. The projections suggest that while Morton may struggle with his command, the Orioles' offense ranks 22nd in MLB, potentially giving Fedde an edge.

The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive fireworks, especially considering the Cardinals’ 9th-ranked offense in MLB. With both teams looking to improve their standings, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's 2065-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 13th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals (20.1 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Charlie Morton is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year's 92.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 23 games (+13.55 Units / 42% ROI)
• Victor Scott II has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.8, Baltimore Orioles 5

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles

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