St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/14/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
• Run Line: Cardinals 1.5 -155, D-Backs -1.5 135
• Money Line: Cardinals 130, D-Backs -150
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -115

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 42%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 58%

Projected Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 41.08%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 58.92%

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

On April 14, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals at Chase Field. As the home team, the Diamondbacks will look to improve their below-average season record of 7-8. The Cardinals, also having a below-average season with a 7-8 record, will aim to turn things around as the away team.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zac Gallen, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gallen is ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas, who has been struggling this season.

Gallen has started three games this year and has an impressive win/loss record of 2-0. His ERA stands at 2.25, indicating excellent performance on the mound. However, his 2.96 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and may not perform as well going forward. Mikolas, with a win/loss record of 1-1, has an ERA of 4.76, which is below average. However, his 4.13 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in upcoming games.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank as the 6th best in MLB this season. Their team batting average ranks 11th, while their team home runs rank 19th. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league. On the other hand, the Cardinals' offense ranks 20th overall, with their team batting average and home runs ranking 7th and 5th, respectively. However, they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 23rd.

In terms of the bullpen, the Diamondbacks rank 18th, while the Cardinals rank 2nd according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Cardinals have a stronger bullpen, which could work in their favor.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring expectation. The Diamondbacks are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Cardinals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130, with an implied win probability of 42%.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Miles Mikolas in the 10th percentile among all SPs in the majors.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Nolan Gorman has been hot recently, notching 3 long-balls in the last 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.4-mph decrease from last year's 93-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The 6.4% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks grades them out as the #28 group of hitters in the league since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cardinals vs D-Backs Prediction: Cardinals 4.35 - D-Backs 4.99

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