St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals Pick For 7/6/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals are set to square off on July 6, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals, who currently sit at 41-47, have struggled this season, while the Cardinals boast a more respectable 46-41 record. This National League matchup is the second game in their series, with both teams looking to gain momentum.

Washington will send left-hander MacKenzie Gore to the mound. Gore has had a solid season, with a 3.47 ERA and a 6-7 record over 17 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gore is ranked the #49 best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating he is a reliable option for the Nationals. However, his projections for today's game are mixed, with an average of 5.3 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and 5.5 strikeouts. His high walk rate of 2.0 and hit rate of 5.2 could be areas of concern.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn, with a 3.59 ERA and a 4-3 record over 17 starts, has been an average pitcher this season. His 4.11 SIERA suggests he has been a bit fortunate, and he might regress in the future. For today's game, he projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allow 2.9 earned runs, and strike out 4.3 batters. His high hit rate of 5.8 and walk rate of 1.6 could also be problematic.

Offensively, neither team has been particularly impressive. The Nationals' offense ranks 24th in MLB, with notable struggles in power, ranking 29th in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd. The Cardinals' offense isn't much better, ranking 22nd overall and 24th in home runs, though they are average in batting average and stolen bases.

The Nationals' bullpen, ranked 28th, has been a significant weak spot, while the Cardinals' bullpen stands out as the 2nd best in MLB, which could be a deciding factor late in the game.

Luis Garcia has been a bright spot for Washington, hitting .450 with a 1.450 OPS over the last week. Willson Contreras has been the standout for St. Louis, posting a .261 average and a 1.022 OPS in the same period.

With the Nationals' implied win probability at 54% and the Cardinals at 46%, betting markets anticipate a close game. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting a high-scoring affair. Washington's implied team total is 4.71 runs, while St. Louis is at 4.29 runs. Keep an eye on both bullpens, as they could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Lance Lynn projects to record an average of 16.6 outs in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Nolan Gorman may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's change-up rate has spiked by 6.7% from last year to this one (2.9% to 9.6%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Keibert Ruiz's true offensive talent to be a .292, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .053 disparity between that mark and his actual .239 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.03 vs Washington Nationals 4.81

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