St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Rogers Centre on September 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight battle for respectability in the standings. The Blue Jays sit at 70-78, struggling through a below-average season, while the Cardinals hold a record of 74-73, reflecting an average performance thus far. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the second game in this interleague series.

In their last outing, the Blue Jays faced off against the Cardinals, with the Blue Jays winning that matchup in extra innings. For today's game, the Blue Jays will send Jose Berrios to the mound, who has had a mixed season. Berrios holds a 15-9 record with a solid 3.52 ERA, but his 4.29 xFIP indicates he may have benefited from some good fortune this year. Although he is projected to pitch an average of 5.8 innings, his projections suggest he could struggle with allowing hits and walks.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Gibson, who has an 8-6 record and a 4.20 ERA. Like Berrios, Gibson has faced challenges, as indicated by his 4.71 xERA, suggesting he too may not be as effective moving forward. Both pitchers are right-handed, and the matchup could favor the Blue Jays slightly due to their home-field advantage.

The Blue Jays' offense ranks 14th in MLB, which is considered average, but they struggle significantly with power, sitting 22nd in home runs. The projections indicate that Toronto is expected to score around 4.38 runs, while St. Louis is projected for just 4.01 runs, highlighting the potential for a close and competitive game. With the Blue Jays listed at -135 on the moneyline, betting markets reflect their slight edge, acknowledging the potential for a tighter contest than their standings might suggest.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson has utilized his change-up 7.5% less often this year (9.5%) than he did last year (17%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

In the last two weeks, Ivan Herrera's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios's 2158-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 25th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.18 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.62

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.