St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Landen Roupp - Giants

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals square off on September 27, 2024, at Oracle Park in a National League matchup between two teams with little at stake in the postseason race. With both teams having average seasons—the Giants at 79-80 and the Cardinals at 81-78—this series opener will feature Landen Roupp for the Giants and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals on the mound.

Roupp has been an interesting story this year. Despite being the Giants' 81st-best pitcher in the league, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, his 2.70 ERA suggests a stronger performance, though his 4.16 xFIP hints at potential regression. He’s projected to allow just 2.0 earned runs over 5 innings, despite a high allowance of hits and walks. Mikolas, on the other hand, has endured a tough season with a 5.35 ERA, but his 4.06 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit unlucky. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs.

Offensively, both teams have shown mediocrity, though the Giants’ bats rank 19th in the league, slightly outpacing the Cardinals at 20th. San Francisco's Casey Schmitt has been hot, boasting a .429 batting average and 1.413 OPS over the last week, while the Cardinals' Ivan Herrera has been even more impressive, with a .462 batting average and 1.639 OPS, including 2 home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a 60% chance of winning, higher than the 54% implied by betting markets. This suggests potential value in backing San Francisco. While the game total is low at 7.5 runs, expect a strategic battle between these evenly matched squads. With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 5th in the league, they hold a slight edge over the Cardinals' 16th-ranked bullpen, potentially making the difference in a tight contest.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

In his previous GS, Miles Mikolas was rolling and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Over the past week, Paul Goldschmidt's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis has performed as the #3 offense in MLB when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (44.2% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Tallying 74.6 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Landen Roupp falls in the 6th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Matt Chapman has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 98.7-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 119 games (+7.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.95 Units / 30% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.60 Units / 39% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.86 vs San Francisco Giants 4.46

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