St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants Pick For 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Blake Snell - Giants

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals prepare for the second game of their series on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves having average seasons, with the Giants holding a 79-81 record and the Cardinals slightly better at 82-78. This National League matchup at Oracle Park sees the Giants' Blake Snell and the Cardinals' Andre Pallante taking the mound. Snell, despite a solid 3.12 ERA, has been somewhat unlucky this season, as his 2.43 FIP suggests he's pitched better than his results indicate. Meanwhile, Pallante comes in with a respectable 3.71 ERA, contributing both as a starter and from the bullpen.

The Giants are looking to bounce back after a 6-3 loss to the Cardinals on September 27, where St. Louis capitalized on their opportunities. San Francisco's offense, ranked 20th in MLB this season, will need to overcome their struggles against Pallante, whose performance has been above average, despite having a lower strikeout rate. The Giants' bats will lean on Matt Chapman, who has been their standout hitter, while Casey Schmitt has been hot over the past week with a 1.229 OPS.

On the other side, the Cardinals' offense, ranked 18th, will look to continue their momentum after last night's win. Lars Nootbaar has been on a tear, posting a 1.613 OPS over his last five games. However, the Cardinals will face a significant challenge against Snell, who projects to strike out an impressive 7.5 batters on average today.

The Giants' bullpen, considered the best in MLB according to power rankings, could be a decisive factor late in the game. The betting markets see this as a close contest, but the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Giants a 63% chance of victory, suggesting value in betting on San Francisco. Expect a competitive game as both teams look to finish their seasons on a high note.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's high utilization rate of his fastball (69.1% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Ivan Herrera has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.3-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.1-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all starting pitchers, Blake Snell's fastball spin rate of 2434 rpm grades out in the 84th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.35 Units / 41% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+6.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.10 Units / 87% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.25 vs San Francisco Giants 4.09

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.