St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants Best Bet – 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael McGreevy - Cardinals
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the MLB season winds down, the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in an evenly matched National League clash on September 29, 2024, at Oracle Park. The Giants, with an 80-81 record, are not contending for a playoff spot, while the Cardinals, at 82-79, also find themselves out of the postseason picture.

On the mound, San Francisco will rely on Hayden Birdsong, who has had an unremarkable season. Birdsong's 4.66 ERA is average, and his advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the 210th best starting pitcher, highlighting his struggles this year. Despite starting 15 games, his performance has been inconsistent, with projections estimating he will allow 4.4 hits and 1.7 walks today, both considered terrible metrics.

For St. Louis, Michael McGreevy takes center stage. While his 2.40 ERA exudes excellence, a deeper dive reveals some potential over-performance, as indicated by his 3.03 FIP. McGreevy's projected performance suggests a regression might be on the horizon, as projections expect him to allow 2.4 earned runs and 5.6 hits today, which are only slightly better than Birdsong's numbers.

Offensively, the Cardinals have a slight edge, ranking 16th overall in MLB with a commendable 9th place in batting average. The Giants rank 18th overall but struggle with power, sitting at 16th in team home runs. However, San Francisco boasts the 7th best bullpen, which could play a crucial role in the late innings.

Recent performances further tilt the narrative. Lars Nootbaar has been a bright spot for the Cardinals, posting a 1.367 OPS over his last five games, while Casey Schmitt has a similar impact for the Giants, albeit over four games. With both teams having little at stake besides pride, bettors and fans can expect a competitive game, with projections giving San Francisco a slight edge, mirroring the odds makers' implied win probability of 54%.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Because flyball hitters hold a sizeable edge over groundball pitchers, Michael McGreevy and his 49.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today's game going up against 0 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Over the last 7 days, Alec Burleson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Michael Siani ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering the 0.61 difference between Hayden Birdsong's 10.24 K/9 and his 9.63 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to see negative regression the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Patrick Bailey has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+9.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games (+5.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Grant McCray has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 47% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.89 vs San Francisco Giants 4.17

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.