St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 7/3/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on July 3, 2024, for the second game of their series. Both teams are looking to make a statement in this National League Central matchup. The Pirates have struggled this season with a 40-44 record, while the Cardinals are faring slightly better at 44-40.

On the mound, the Pirates will start Jared Jones, who has been a bright spot for Pittsburgh. Jones holds a 3.66 ERA over 15 starts, boasting an above-average ranking as the #74 best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. His projected 4.7 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs suggest he could keep the Pirates competitive, despite his struggles with hits and walks.

The Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, who has had a tough season. His 5.32 ERA over 17 starts is concerning, though his 4.14 xFIP indicates he might have been unlucky and could improve. Mikolas is projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs, which isn't promising. However, his low strikeout rate could be advantageous against a Pirates offense that ranks 4th in MLB for most strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. The Pirates rank 28th in overall offense, 25th in batting average, 24th in home runs, and 22nd in stolen bases. The Cardinals aren't much better, ranking 23rd overall, 17th in batting average, 22nd in home runs, and 18th in stolen bases. Connor Joe has been a standout for the Pirates recently, hitting .417 with a 1.083 OPS over the last week. Dylan Carlson has been hot for the Cardinals, batting .333 with a .929 OPS in his last seven games.

The Pirates' bullpen struggles continue, ranking 22nd, while the Cardinals boast the best bullpen in MLB. This disparity could be crucial in a close game. The betting markets reflect this, with the Pirates' moneyline at -130, implying a 54% win probability, and the Cardinals at +110, implying a 46% win probability. Given these projections and the Pirates' slight edge in starting pitching, they might have the upper hand despite their overall struggles this season.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Miles Mikolas will rack up an average of 4 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Jared Jones in the 91st percentile among all SPs in the majors.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Connor Joe's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 86.1-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 79-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 26% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.57 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.74

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