St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick & Prediction – 7/4/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Martin Perez - Pirates

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As we head into the third game of this National League Central series, the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-44) host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-41) at PNC Park on July 4, 2024. The Pirates are having a below average season, while the Cardinals are slightly above average, which makes this matchup a bit more compelling despite the teams' overall struggles.

The Pirates will send Martin Perez to the mound. Perez has had a tough season with a 1-4 record and a 5.28 ERA over 12 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, his 4.39 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and might perform better moving forward. However, Perez is still ranked as the 223rd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, making him one of the least effective in the league. The projections indicate that Perez will pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, 6 hits, 1.8 walks, and striking out 3.3 batters, which doesn’t inspire much confidence for Pirates fans.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante. Pallante has been a solid arm with a 4.50 ERA in 15 appearances this season. His 3.81 xERA implies he's also been a bit unlucky. Pallante is an average pitcher by the advanced-stat Power Rankings, but this could be advantageous against a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in MLB and struggles across the board, including ranking 25th in team batting average and 24th in home runs. The projections for Pallante suggest he will pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.6 hits, 1.9 walks, and striking out 3.5 batters.

Offensively, the Pirates have been led recently by Rowdy Tellez, who has a .357 batting average and 1.143 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Dylan Carlson has been scorching hot for the Cardinals, posting a .400 batting average and 1.100 OPS in the past seven games.

What really stands out in this matchup is the disparity in bullpen quality. The Cardinals boast the top-ranked bullpen in MLB, while the Pirates sit at 22nd. This significant edge could be critical in a close game, especially considering both teams have high implied team totals with the Pirates at 4.45 runs and the Cardinals at 4.55 runs. Bettors should note that the Cardinals have a slight edge with a moneyline of -115, implying a 51% win probability, while the Pirates sit at -105 with a 49% implied win probability. Given the Pirates' offensive struggles and Perez’s poor season, the Cardinals appear to have the upper hand in this contest.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante was on point in his last start and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Nolan Arenado has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85-mph dropping to 79.3-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.4% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Martin Perez is expected to tally an average of 3.7 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Extreme groundball batters like Oneil Cruz generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+6.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.02 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.45

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