St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 7/22/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on July 22, 2024, in the first game of a National League Central series. The Pirates, currently holding a 50-49 record, are in the midst of an average season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a slightly better record at 52-47 and are enjoying an above-average campaign. With both teams vying for position in the standings, this matchup holds significant importance.

The Pirates are projected to start Mitch Keller, who has a solid 10-5 record with a 3.46 ERA over 19 starts this season. Despite his strong ERA, his 4.01 xFIP suggests he has benefited from some luck and might regress. Keller's projections for this game are average across the board, with 5.8 innings pitched, 3.0 earned runs allowed, and 5.1 strikeouts. However, his high hit and walk projections (6.2 hits and 1.6 walks) could pose challenges.

The Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has split his time between the bullpen and the rotation this season. Pallante has a 4-4 record and a 4.21 ERA, but his 3.64 xERA indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and might improve. His projections for this game are similarly average, with 5.4 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, and 3.7 strikeouts. Pallante's low strikeout rate could play to his advantage against a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in most strikeouts in MLB.

Offensively, the Pirates rank as the 27th best in MLB, struggling in key areas such as team batting average (26th), home runs (21st), and stolen bases (24th). In contrast, the Cardinals' offense is more balanced, ranking 18th overall, with a 13th place in team batting average but a poor 25th in home runs. Both teams have strong bullpens, with the Cardinals ranked 5th and the Pirates 8th, which could play a significant role in a close game.

Betting markets have the Pirates as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Cardinals are at +110, implying a 46% win probability. Given the Pirates' high implied team total of 4.45 runs, they might have the edge, especially if Keller can maintain his current form and the bullpen continues to perform well.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Masyn Winn has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 81.8-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average hurler, Mitch Keller has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 4.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball batters like Josh Palacios tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+10.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games (+6.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.69 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.32

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