St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 7/2/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As we head into the first game of this National League Central matchup on July 2, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates (40-43) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (43-40) at PNC Park. Both teams are looking to make up some ground in the standings, though it's clear the Cardinals have had a slightly better season so far, with an above-average record contrasted by the Pirates' below-average performance.

The Pirates are projected to start Mitch Keller, who has been fairly consistent this season. With a 9-4 record and a 3.20 ERA, Keller ranks as the 119th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 3.97 xFIP suggests some luck might be involved, and he could regress in future outings.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Gibson. Though he holds a 5-3 record and a respectable 3.70 ERA, advanced metrics like his 4.84 xERA indicate he's been fortunate, and tougher days may be ahead. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks Gibson as a below-average pitcher.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. The Pirates' offense is ranked 28th in MLB, and they find themselves near the bottom in several key categories, including team batting average (25th), home runs (24th), and stolen bases (22nd). Even with Connor Joe heating up over the last week—batting .500 with a 1.386 OPS—the team has significant offensive weaknesses.

The Cardinals aren’t much better, sitting at 23rd in overall offensive rankings. They hold a middling 17th in team batting average and 21st in home runs. Michael Siani has been a bright spot for St. Louis recently, hitting .444 with a 1.111 OPS over the past week.

Despite these factors, betting markets are giving the Pirates a slight edge with a moneyline of -130, translating to an implied win probability of 54%. The Cardinals' moneyline sits at +110, implying a 46% chance of victory.

Overall, this game projects to be a tightly contested battle with implications for both teams as they aim to improve their standings. The Pirates will hope their home-field advantage and Mitch Keller's steadiness can counterbalance their offensive struggles and St. Louis's superior bullpen.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's change-up utilization has dropped by 8.3% from last year to this one (17% to 8.7%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Paul Goldschmidt has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 96.4-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

St. Louis's #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Oneil Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit grade out 10th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 8.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 78 games (+16.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 58% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.62 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.52

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.